Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
