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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.